Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Mitch GarverBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jon GrayPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 7Seager singled to center, Duran scored and Taveras scored.3–6
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 6Carroll hit sacrifice fly to left, Moreno scored.1–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–6
- 6Garver homered to left (371 feet).1–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 5Gurriel Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Carroll scored, Marte to third.0–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 5Pham singled to center, Perdomo scored, Marte to second, Carroll to third.0–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 2Carroll reached on infield single to pitcher, Moreno scored on error, Perdomo to second, Perdomo safe at third on throwing error by pitcher Gray.0–3
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 30–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 2Moreno singled to right, Gurriel Jr. scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2Peterson grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Walker scored, Thomas out at second, Gurriel Jr. to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 47%
- Fair odds
- ARI -102
- TEX +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.6 – 4.6 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +5 | TEX: Jon Gray: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +24 Elo | TEX 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.713th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 11th of 3030–29 | Road vs home | 31–3120th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 1–2 ARI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.