Texas Rangers at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Adolis GarciaBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 11Pham doubled to center, Marte scored and Perdomo scored.3–4
- 11Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 11Perdomo doubled to right, Moreno scored, Marte to third.3–2
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 11Lowe doubled to center, Duran scored and Seager scored.3–1
- 11Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 11Pitch 4 : Ball 21–1
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball 11–1
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 9Marte homered to left (383 feet).1–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 7García homered to center (425 feet).1–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rangers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 56%
- Fair odds
- TEX -100
- ARI +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.7 – 4.7 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −9 | TEX: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ARI: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +40 Elo | TEX 55.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.7 | Runs scored | 4.713th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 11th of 3030–28 | Road vs home | 30–3121st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TEX 1–1 ARI in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.