Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Matt McLainBatting2-6, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ben LivelyPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zach DaviesPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 11Friedl scored on a balk, Steer to second on a balk.8–7
- 11Friedl scored on a balk, Steer to second on a balk.8–7
- 10Walker hit sacrifice fly to center, Carroll scored, Pham to third.7–7
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–7
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 37–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 27–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 17–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–6
- 10Perdomo scored on error, Pham safe at first on fielding error by second baseman McLain, Carroll safe at third on error.7–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–5
- 10Perdomo singled to center, Herrera scored.7–5
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 17–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–4
- 10Encarnacion-Strand singled to center, Hopkins scored.7–4
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–4
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 26–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 16–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–4
- 10Martini hit a ground rule double, Steer scored.6–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 10Steer doubled to center, De La Cruz scored.5–4
- 10Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–4
- 10Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging4–4
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball 34–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 24–4
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 9McLain grounded out to second, Siani scored, Friedl to third.4–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 9Stephenson doubled to right, Marte scored.3–4
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 32–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 22–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 48%
- Fair odds
- ARI -109
- CIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.7 – 4.8 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −32 | CIN: Fernando Cruz (no track record yet) · ARI: Zach Davies: team allows 1.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +12 Elo | CIN 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.713th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.820th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 6th of 3036–29 | Road vs home | 34–3116th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 3–2 ARI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.