Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Matt McLainBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Lyon RichardsonPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Angels- Nolan SchanuelBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8McLain homered to left center (401 feet), Benson scored.7–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 8Marte grounded out to third, Hopkins scored, Benson to second.5–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 5Rengifo singled to right, Schanuel scored and Ohtani scored.4–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 4McLain singled to center, Benson scored.4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 4Stephenson homered to center (393 feet), Friedl scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Steer singled to right, De La Cruz scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Schanuel singled to center, Moniak scored, Velazquez to second.0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Angels 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 49%
- Fair odds
- LAA -105
- CIN +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 5.2 – 5.3 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −11 | CIN: Lyon Richardson: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +5 Elo | CIN 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 5th of 3035–27 | Road vs home | 32–3220th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 2–0 LAA in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.