Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Nick MartiniBatting2-3, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Brett KennedyPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Diamondbacks- Jace PetersonBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Benson homered to center (427 feet), Steer scored, Martini scored and Encarnacion-Strand scored.8–10
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–10
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 34–10
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 24–10
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 14–10
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–10
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–10
- 8Peterson tripled to center, Moreno scored.4–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–9
- 8Moreno tripled to right, Thomas scored.4–9
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–9
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–8
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking4–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 34–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–8
- 7Marte hit sacrifice fly to right, Moreno scored, Perdomo to third.4–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–8
- 7Perdomo reached on infield single to second, Thomas scored, Moreno to third.4–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 6Walker popped out to shortstop, Perdomo scored, Pham safe at second on error, Carroll safe at third on throwing error by shortstop De La Cruz.4–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–5
- 6Martini homered to right (367 feet), McLain scored and De La Cruz scored.4–5
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–5
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 31–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 4Pham singled to left, Carroll scored and Peterson scored, Marte to second.1–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 21–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 52%
- Fair odds
- ARI -110
- CIN +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.4 – 4.6 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +1 | CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +15 Elo | ARI 52.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.713th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 6th of 3036–28 | Road vs home | 33–3118th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 3–1 ARI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.