Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Nick SenzelBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brandon WilliamsonPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 8Carroll homered to right (391 feet), Gurriel Jr. scored.2–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 8Stephenson singled to center, Marte scored.2–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 8Senzel homered to left (358 feet).1–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 7Peterson singled to right, Ahmed scored, Marte to second, Moreno thrown out at home.0–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Diamondbacks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 55%
- Fair odds
- ARI -112
- CIN +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.5 – 4.8 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +10 | CIN: Brandon Williamson: team allows 0.62 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +38 Elo | ARI 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.713th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.820th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 4th of 3036–27 | Road vs home | 32–3118th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 3–0 ARI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.