Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jared ShusterPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Giants- Casey SchmittBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tristan BeckPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Estrada reached on bunt single to pitcher, Pederson scored, Slater to second.5–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–8
- 6Slater singled to center, Meckler scored, Pederson to third.5–7
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 35–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 25–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–6
- 6Ozuna homered to left center (378 feet), Olson scored.5–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–6
- 5Bailey doubled to right, Davis scored, Slater scored and Flores scored.3–6
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–6
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 23–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 13–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 5Davis walked, Matos scored, Flores to second, Slater to third.3–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 43–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 33–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 5Lopez singled to left, d'Arnaud scored, Lopez to second, Arcia to third.3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 5d'Arnaud singled to right, Ozuna scored and Rosario scored.2–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2Schmitt homered to left center (426 feet).0–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 1Davis singled to right, Slater scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 60%
- Fair odds
- ATL -110
- SF +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.4 – 4.2 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1570 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −9 | ATL: Jared Shuster: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · SF: Tristan Beck (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +68 Elo | ATL 59.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.8 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 4th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.7 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 1st of 3040–22 | Road vs home | 35–3012th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 4–1 SF in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.