New York Mets at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- David PetersonPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Allan WinansPitching4.1 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Lindor homered to left center (403 feet), Ortega scored and Nimmo scored.10–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 17–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–4
- 5Stewart sacrificed to pitcher, Alonso scored, Vogelbach to second.7–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul6–4
- 5Vogelbach singled to right, McNeil scored, Alonso to third.6–4
- 5Pitch 9 : Ball In Play6–4
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball 25–4
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 15–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–4
- 5Alonso singled to left, Lindor scored, McNeil to second.5–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 5McNeil singled to right, Nimmo scored, Lindor to second.4–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 4Ozuna homered to left center (439 feet).3–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 33–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 3Harris II doubled to center, Acuña Jr. scored and Arcia scored.3–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 2Ozuna homered to left (417 feet).3–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 13–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 2Ortega homered to right (381 feet), Narváez scored.3–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 64%
- Fair odds
- ATL -139
- NYM +139 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 5.0 – 5.7 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1568 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | 0 | NYM: David Peterson: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ATL: Allan Winans: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +104 Elo | ATL 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 58.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.81st of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +1.71st of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 26th of 3027–39 | Road vs home | 42–212nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 2–8 ATL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.