New York Mets at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Daniel VogelbachBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tylor MegillPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting3-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Vogelbach homered to center (410 feet), Lindor scored.2–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 5Ozuna homered to left center (399 feet).0–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 2Rosario homered to right center (415 feet), Ozuna scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 63%
- Fair odds
- ATL -136
- NYM +136 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 5.2 – 5.8 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −6 | NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +92 Elo | ATL 63.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 57.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.81st of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +1.71st of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 25th of 3028–39 | Road vs home | 42–222nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 3–8 ATL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.