New York Mets at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- DJ StewartBatting2-4
- Jose QuintanaPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 7Ozuna homered to left (416 feet), Olson scored.0–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 10–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–5
- 6Grissom tripled to right, Murphy scored and Harris II scored.0–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 6Murphy singled to center, Ozuna scored.0–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 6Ozuna doubled to center, Riley scored.0–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Ozuna singled to center, Riley scored on error, Ozuna safe at second on throwing error by center fielder Nimmo, Olson safe at third on error.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 64%
- Fair odds
- ATL -138
- NYM +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 5.0 – 5.7 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +13 | NYM: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +98 Elo | ATL 63.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 57.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.81st of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +1.71st of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 26th of 3028–40 | Road vs home | 43–222nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 3–9 ATL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.