Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Giants- J.D. DavisBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Davis grounded out to third, Pederson scored.5–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 25–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 6Olson hit sacrifice fly to third, Harris II scored.5–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 6Harris II singled to right, Acuña Jr. scored.4–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Ozuna singled to right, Olson scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Olson doubled to right, Harris II scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Harris II homered to right (389 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 58%
- Fair odds
- ATL -107
- SF +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.3 – 4.1 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +1 | ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +59 Elo | ATL 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.8 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.7 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 1st of 3038–22 | Road vs home | 35–2810th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 2–1 SF in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.