Atlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Orlando ArciaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Max FriedPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Giants- Wilmer FloresBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Meckler singled to center, Ramos scored.7–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking7–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–2
- 8Lopez hit sacrifice fly to right, Rosario scored.7–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 26–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–2
- 8Arcia hit sacrifice fly to left, Ozuna scored, Rosario to third.6–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 8Rosario singled to left, Olson scored, Ozuna to second.5–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 6Arcia homered to center (402 feet).4–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 5Riley homered to left (402 feet).3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Flores homered to center (409 feet), Slater scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Olson singled to left, Acuña Jr. scored, Riley to second.2–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Olson doubled to center, Riley scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Braves 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 60%
- Fair odds
- ATL -109
- SF +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.3 – 4.1 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1569 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −8 | ATL: Max Fried: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · SF: Ryan Walker: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +72 Elo | ATL 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.8 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 4th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.7 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–721st of 30 |
| 1st of 3039–22 | Road vs home | 35–2911th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
ATL 3–1 SF in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.