Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Giants- Wade MecklerBatting1-1, 1 RBI
- Kyle HarrisonPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 8De La Cruz doubled to center, Senzel scored on error, De La Cruz safe at third on throwing error by shortstop DeJong.1–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–4
- 6Meckler doubled to right, Pederson scored.0–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 10–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 3DeJong hit sacrifice fly to right, Davis scored, Bailey to third.0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 3Bailey doubled to right, Estrada scored, Davis to third.0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Flores doubled to right, Slater scored, Estrada to third.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 49%
- Fair odds
- SF -109
- CIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.1 – 4.3 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −6 | CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SF: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +4 Elo | CIN 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.322nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 6th of 3037–30 | Road vs home | 36–3011th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 2–2 SF in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.