Cincinnati Reds at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Christian Encarnacion-StrandBatting4-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Giants- Casey SchmittBatting2-3
- Logan WebbPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Encarnacion-Strand homered to center (398 feet), De La Cruz scored.4–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Schmitt scored, Estrada to second on pickoff error by pitcher Gibaut.2–1
- 6Schmitt scored, Estrada to second on pickoff error by pitcher Gibaut.2–1
- 6Encarnacion-Strand singled to left, De La Cruz scored.2–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 6Steer stole home, De La Cruz stole second.1–0
- 6Steer stole home, De La Cruz stole second.1–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Giants 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 55%
- Fair odds
- SF -114
- CIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.9 – 4.2 SF
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +2 | CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +34 Elo | SF 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.320th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 8th of 3037–32 | Road vs home | 38–3010th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CIN 2–4 SF in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.