San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Wilmer FloresBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Alex WoodPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Wade Jr. hit by pitch, Estrada scored, Sabol to second, Crawford to third.3–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–7
- 6Tatis Jr. scored on error, Soto safe at first on fielding error by second baseman Estrada.2–7
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–7
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 22–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 4Crawford hit sacrifice fly to center, Bailey scored.2–6
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–6
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 31–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 3Batten doubled to left, Cooper scored, Campusano to third.1–6
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–5
- 3Campusano singled to right, Bogaerts scored, Cooper to second.1–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–5
- 2Grisham singled to right, Campusano scored.1–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 1Soto homered to center (432 feet).1–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 1Tatis Jr. homered to right (373 feet), Kim scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Flores homered to left (419 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Padres 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 55%
- Fair odds
- SD -106
- SF +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.8 – 3.9 SD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +7 | SF: Tristan Beck: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · SD: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +33 Elo | SD 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SF | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.15th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 11th of 3032–31 | Road vs home | 33–3420th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SF 4–3 SD in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.