San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jake CronenworthBatting4-4, 4 RBI
- Michael KingPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting4-5, 1 HR, 6 RBI
- Michael GrovePitching2.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Machado homered to left (395 feet), Tatis Jr. scored and Cronenworth scored.15–11
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play15–11
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 215–11
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 112–11
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking12–11
- 8Betts reached on infield single to second, Outman scored and Heyward scored, Betts to second.12–11
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play12–11
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking12–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 212–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 112–11
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking12–9
- 7Smith reached on infield single to second, Betts scored, Freeman to third.12–9
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play12–9
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking12–8
- 7Bogaerts scored, Azocar safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Muncy, Machado to second, Cronenworth to third.12–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play12–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 112–8
- 6Campusano doubled to left, Azocar scored.11–8
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 210–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 110–8
- 5Betts homered to left center (400 feet), Heyward scored.10–8
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–8
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 310–8
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 210–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 110–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–6
- 5Cronenworth singled to right, Merrill scored, Tatis Jr. to second.10–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play10–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul9–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–6
- 3Betts doubled to left, Lux scored and Heyward scored.9–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–6
- 3Heyward singled to center, Muncy scored.9–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play9–4
- 3Outman grounded out to first, Smith scored, Muncy to third.9–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 19–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 65%
- ML SD +175 / LAD -210
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 50.0%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -186
- SD +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.6 – 4.9 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | — | Neutral site, no advantage |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −11 | SD: Joe Musgrove: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | SD 0 Elo | SD 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
Last season (2023) coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher).
| SD | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.62nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +1.32nd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 4–10 LAD in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.