San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Luis CampusanoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Dodgers- Kolten WongBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan PepiotPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Wong homered to right (361 feet).6–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking6–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 7Tatis Jr. singled to right, Cooper scored and Grisham scored, Rosario to third.6–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–0
- 4Campusano homered to left (381 feet), Tatis Jr. scored and Soto scored.4–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Soto homered to right (398 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 60%
- Fair odds
- LAD -133
- SD +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.6 – 5.2 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | +20 | SD: Blake Snell: team allows 0.87 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.98 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +72 Elo | LAD 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.72nd of 30 |
| 7th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +1.23rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 25th of 3029–42 | Road vs home | 48–252nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
SD 3–9 LAD in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.