Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Max MuncyBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bobby MillerPitching7.0 IP, 5 ER, 8 K
Nationals- Lane ThomasBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 11Chavis scored on Varland wild pitch.6–7
- 11Chavis scored on Varland wild pitch.6–7
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 16–7
- 10Ruiz singled to center, Kieboom scored.6–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–5
- 10Hernández singled to right, Smith scored, Rosario to second.6–5
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–5
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–5
- 9Wong singled to right, Outman scored.5–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 8Muncy homered to right center (405 feet), Smith scored.4–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 22–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 7Thomas homered to left (367 feet), Abrams scored.2–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Hernández hit sacrifice fly to center, Martinez scored.2–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 31–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 5Smith hit sacrifice fly to right, L. García scored, Abrams to third.1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–2
- 5L. García singled to right, Vargas scored.1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Thomas hit sacrifice fly to right, Abrams scored.1–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Muncy hit sacrifice fly to right, Peralta scored, Freeman to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 61%
- Fair odds
- LAD -114
- WSH +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.8 – 5.5 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1557 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −3 | LAD: Bobby Miller: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +78 Elo | LAD 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.227th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.2 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 4th of 3039–30 | Road vs home | 29–4228th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 3–1 WSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.