Los Angeles Dodgers at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- J.D. MartinezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Emmet SheehanPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Muncy singled to center, Freeman scored, Smith to third.8–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–5
- 6Martinez hit sacrifice fly to left, Taylor scored.7–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging6–5
- 6Taylor doubled to center, Hernández scored and Outman scored.6–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 14–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 5Abrams homered to center (397 feet), Young scored.4–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 4Hernández homered to left (379 feet).4–3
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball 33–3
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 23–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 4Muncy homered to right (408 feet).3–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 1Ruiz homered to right center (386 feet), Abrams scored and Meneses scored.2–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Martinez homered to right center (393 feet), Freeman scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 59%
- Fair odds
- LAD -111
- WSH +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.7 – 5.5 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −1 | LAD: Emmet Sheehan: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +61 Elo | LAD 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.226th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.2 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 5th of 3038–30 | Road vs home | 29–4126th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 2–1 WSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.