New York Mets at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Jose ButtoPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Nationals- Dominic SmithBatting3-4
- Joan AdonPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Young singled to center, Kieboom scored, Alu to third.2–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 7Abrams singled to center, Vargas scored, Young to third.2–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 32–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 7Vargas singled to right, Smith scored, Alu to second.2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Vientos singled to left, Lindor scored, Alonso to second.2–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Lindor singled to right, Nimmo scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 49%
- Fair odds
- WSH -107
- NYM +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 5.4 – 5.5 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +6 | NYM: Jose Butto: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · WSH: Joan Adon: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +8 Elo | NYM 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 5.226th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 25th of 3029–41 | Road vs home | 28–4128th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYM 7–5 WSH in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.