Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Braxton GarrettPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting0-3, 1 RBI
- Joan AdonPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Burger homered to left center (391 feet).6–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–1
- 5Abrams hit sacrifice fly to center, Alu scored.5–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 5Chisholm Jr. homered to right (376 feet), Bell scored and Burger scored.5–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 4Arraez grounded into double play, second to shortstop to third, Sánchez scored, Fortes out at second, Hampson out at third.2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1De La Cruz doubled to left, Arraez scored, Bell to third.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Nationals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH 54%
- Fair odds
- WSH -110
- MIA +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.6 – 4.8 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +9 | MIA: Braxton Garrett: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · WSH: Joan Adon: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +26 Elo | WSH 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.321st of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3028–36 | Road vs home | 28–3625th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
MIA 7–2 WSH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.