Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Carter KieboomBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joan AdonPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Marlins- Jesus SanchezBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Braxton GarrettPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Call singled to center, Vargas scored, Adams to second.7–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 7Chisholm Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Fortes scored, Berti out at second.6–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 7Fortes hit a ground rule double, Sánchez scored.6–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–3
- 7Sánchez tripled to right, Burger scored and De La Cruz scored.6–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 26–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 16–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–0
- 7Ruiz singled to right, Meneses scored, Ruiz out stretching at second.6–0
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 15–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 7Meneses doubled to left, Chavis scored and Thomas scored.5–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 6Kieboom homered to left center (409 feet), Ruiz scored.3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Meneses grounded out to shortstop, Abrams scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 53%
- Fair odds
- MIA -115
- WSH +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.5 – 4.9 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +5 | WSH: Joan Adon: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · MIA: Braxton Garrett: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +22 Elo | MIA 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 53.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 17th of 3030–33 | Road vs home | 37–278th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 0–6 MIA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.