Washington Nationals at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Alex CallBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Yankees- Giancarlo StantonBatting4-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael KingPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Stanton singled to left, Peraza scored, Torres to second.6–5
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball In Play6–5
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 36–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 26–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 16–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging6–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 9Meneses reached on infield single to pitcher, Call scored, Thomas to second, Abrams to third.6–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 8Stanton homered to center (417 feet).5–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 35–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 7Abrams homered to right (360 feet).5–3
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play5–3
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Automatic Ball 34–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 24–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 7Call homered to left center (411 feet), Alu scored.4–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 7Alu singled to center, Kieboom scored.2–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Torres homered to left (344 feet), LeMahieu scored.1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 3Alu scored on error, Meneses safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Volpe, Thomas safe at third on error.1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 57%
- Fair odds
- NYY -115
- WSH +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.4 – 4.7 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1480 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | +4 | WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.93 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYY: Michael King: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +47 Elo | NYY 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 17th of 3029–33 | Road vs home | 36–3216th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 1–1 NYY in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.