Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Justin TurnerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Yankees- Anthony VolpeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Clarke SchmidtPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Turner doubled to right, Reyes scored, Devers to third.6–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 7Volpe homered to right center (367 feet), Bader scored and McKinney scored.5–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 7Turner homered to left center (398 feet), Wong scored and Devers scored.5–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Torres homered to left center (389 feet).2–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 12–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 6Yoshida grounded into fielder's choice to second, Devers scored on throwing error by shortstop Volpe, Turner out at second.2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–1
- 3Higashioka homered to center (408 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Devers homered to right (380 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 50%
- Fair odds
- NYY -105
- BOS +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.3 – 4.4 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +1 | BOS: Josh Winckowski (no track record yet) · NYY: Clarke Schmidt: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +1 Elo | BOS 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 13th of 3030–30 | Road vs home | 35–3014th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 7–1 NYY in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.