Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Masataka YoshidaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ian HamiltonPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Devers reached on infield single to third, Verdugo scored.8–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging7–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 17–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–3
- 8Judge homered to right (342 feet), LeMahieu scored.7–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–3
- 3LeMahieu grounded out to third, Volpe scored.7–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 27–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 17–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–0
- 2Yoshida singled to left, Devers scored, Turner to second.7–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 2Turner singled to center, Verdugo scored, Devers to second.6–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 2Devers singled to left, Reyes scored, Verdugo to second.5–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 1Yoshida homered to right center (376 feet), Devers scored and Turner scored.4–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Turner singled to center, Verdugo scored, Devers to second.1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 52%
- Fair odds
- NYY -108
- BOS +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.0 – 4.2 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +13 | BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYY: Jhony Brito: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +11 Elo | NYY 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 15th of 3028–30 | Road vs home | 35–2810th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BOS 5–1 NYY in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.