Washington Nationals at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Josiah GrayPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Ben RortvedtBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Abrams homered to right (345 feet).2–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Rortvedt homered to right center (364 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 3Kieboom homered to left center (382 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 50%
- Fair odds
- NYY -110
- WSH +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.6 – 4.9 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −12 | WSH: Josiah Gray: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +2 Elo | WSH 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.223rd of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 17th of 3028–32 | Road vs home | 35–3116th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.