Washington Nationals at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Dominic SmithBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting3-4, 3 HR, 6 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Smith homered to right (359 feet).1–9
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–9
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 30–9
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–9
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 20–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 10–9
- 7Volpe singled to center, Bader scored.0–9
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–9
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 20–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–8
- 7Judge homered to right (352 feet).0–8
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–8
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking0–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 30–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 20–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
- 7LeMahieu homered to right (333 feet).0–7
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 30–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 20–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–6
- 2Judge homered to center (437 feet), Pereira scored, Higashioka scored and Peraza scored.0–6
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–6
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2Pereira grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Bader scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Judge homered to center (431 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 8 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Yankees 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 49%
- Fair odds
- NYY -109
- WSH +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.4 – 4.6 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −22 | WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · NYY: Luis Severino: team allows 1.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | WSH +6 Elo | WSH 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.224th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 17th of 3029–32 | Road vs home | 35–3217th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 1–0 NYY in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.