Washington Nationals at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Joey MenesesBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Josiah GrayPitching2.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Blue Jays- Danny JansenBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 5Kiermaier singled to right, Jansen scored, Clement to third.3–6
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–6
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 33–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 5Meneses doubled to right, Abrams scored and Thomas scored.3–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–5
- 3Jansen homered to left (402 feet).1–5
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–5
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 31–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 2Schneider singled to right, Guerrero Jr. scored.1–4
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 31–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 2Guerrero Jr. doubled to right, Springer scored and Kiermaier scored.1–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Springer singled to center, Jansen scored, Kiermaier to second.1–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 31–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Meneses singled to center, Abrams scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 55%
- Fair odds
- TOR -119
- WSH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.4 – 4.8 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | −7 | WSH: Josiah Gray: team allows 0.78 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +34 Elo | TOR 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 54.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.517th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.13rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–615th of 30 |
| 15th of 3032–34 | Road vs home | 33–2914th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.