Cleveland Guardians at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Ramon LaureanoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Noah SyndergaardPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- Davis SchneiderBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 11Merrifield hit sacrifice fly to right, Kiermaier scored.10–7
- 11Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–7
- 11Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul10–6
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball 210–6
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging10–6
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 110–6
- 11Laureano homered to left center (391 feet), Calhoun scored.10–6
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball In Play10–6
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–6
- 11Calhoun doubled to right, Ramírez scored and Straw scored.8–6
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–6
- 8Varsho singled to right, Kiermaier scored.6–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–5
- 8Giménez doubled to right, Calhoun scored and Laureano scored.6–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–5
- 6Schneider homered to left (369 feet), Springer scored.4–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 34–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 4Springer homered to left center (392 feet).4–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 14–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 4Straw singled to center, Laureano scored, Freeman to third.4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 4Freeman singled to left, Calhoun scored, Laureano to third.3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Ramírez homered to left (396 feet), Kwan scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 1Guerrero Jr. homered to left (415 feet), Belt scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 63%
- Fair odds
- TOR -127
- CLE +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.7 – 4.2 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −24 | +15 | CLE: Noah Syndergaard: team allows 1.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +93 Elo | TOR 63.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.517th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.01st of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 20th of 3028–36 | Road vs home | 33–2812th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 3–3 TOR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.