Los Angeles Dodgers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Will SmithBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bobby MillerPitching6.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Guardians- Kole CalhounBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Noah SyndergaardPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Straw reached on infield single to shortstop, Giménez scored, Bo Naylor to second.3–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 7Calhoun homered to right (350 feet), Kwan scored and Ramírez scored.3–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–7
- 7Ramírez singled to right, Straw scored, Kwan to third.3–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–3
- 7Kwan singled to center, Brennan scored, Straw to second.3–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 4Arias singled to left, Giménez scored.3–2
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 33–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–1
- 4Gonzalez homered to right (346 feet).3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 3Freeman singled to right, Betts scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 10 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Smith homered to left (400 feet), Betts scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 62%
- Fair odds
- LAD -111
- CLE +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.3 – 4.1 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −28 | LAD: Bobby Miller: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CLE: Noah Syndergaard: team allows 1.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +82 Elo | LAD 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.028th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.03rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.2 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 6th of 3033–26 | Road vs home | 32–3119th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.