Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Guardians- Ramon LaureanoBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Baddoo singled to center, Báez scored.4–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 7Carpenter homered to right (366 feet).3–1
- 7Pitch 10 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 7Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 22–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 12–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 4Laureano singled to center, Kwan scored.2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Torkelson homered to right (365 feet), Vierling scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 55%
- Fair odds
- CLE -114
- DET +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.6 – 3.9 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +14 | DET: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.70 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +35 Elo | CLE 55.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.027th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.03rd of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.8 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 16th of 3030–34 | Road vs home | 32–3018th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 6–3 CLE in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.