Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Kerry CarpenterBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Matt ManningPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Guardians- Kole CalhounBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Kwan singled to center, Bo Naylor scored, Straw to second.4–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 7Báez homered to right center (393 feet).4–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 5Bo Naylor doubled to center, Arias scored on throwing error by center fielder Greene, Bo Naylor safe at third on fielding error by catcher Rogers.3–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 1Calhoun homered to right center (395 feet).3–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 1Carpenter homered to right (354 feet), Greene scored and Torkelson scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 60%
- Fair odds
- CLE -119
- DET +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.4 – 3.8 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +21 | DET: Matt Manning: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 1.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +72 Elo | CLE 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.027th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.8 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 17th of 3029–34 | Road vs home | 32–2918th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 5–3 CLE in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.