Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Akil BaddooBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Guardians- Oscar GonzalezBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Gavin WilliamsPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Gonzalez grounded out to second, Kwan scored.4–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 9Rogers homered to right center (397 feet).4–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 1Gonzalez singled to left, Ramírez scored.3–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 1Cabrera doubled to left, Carpenter scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Carpenter singled to right, Torkelson scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Baddoo homered to center (412 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 55%
- Fair odds
- CLE -115
- DET +115 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.5 – 3.8 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +3 | DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +36 Elo | CLE 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.027th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.14th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.8 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 19th of 3028–33 | Road vs home | 31–2816th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 4–2 CLE in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.