Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Andy IbanezBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Joey WentzPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Will BrennanBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Xzavion CurryPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Arias singled to right, Brennan scored.1–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 8Brennan doubled to center, Calhoun scored and Rocchio scored.1–3
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–3
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 31–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 8Rocchio singled to center, Gonzalez scored, Calhoun to second.1–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 4Ibañez doubled to right, Greene scored.1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Guardians 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 55%
- Fair odds
- CLE -114
- DET +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.5 – 3.7 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −11 | DET: Joey Wentz: team allows 0.64 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CLE: Xzavion Curry: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +36 Elo | CLE 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 53.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.027th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.14th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.8 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 16th of 3029–33 | Road vs home | 31–2919th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
DET 5–2 CLE in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.