Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting1-4
- Kevin GausmanPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rutschman singled to center, Westburg scored and Urías scored.0–7
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 30–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 20–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 8Mullins hit sacrifice fly to center, O'Hearn scored.0–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 20–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 10–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 8Mountcastle scored on throwing error by catcher Jansen, O'Hearn to third on wild pitch by Richards.0–4
- 8Mountcastle scored on throwing error by catcher Jansen, O'Hearn to third on wild pitch by Richards.0–4
- 8Santander homered to right (370 feet).0–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 5Santander homered to right (393 feet).0–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Mountcastle singled to center, Henderson scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 54%
- Fair odds
- BAL -117
- TOR +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.3 – 4.7 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +1 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +28 Elo | BAL 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 1st of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 5th of 3038–29 | Road vs home | 36–245th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 3–8 BAL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 11.