Baltimore Orioles at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Ryan MountcastleBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- JP SearsPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Urías singled to center, Henderson scored.12–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play12–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul12–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 311–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 211–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 111–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking12–1
- 8Henderson doubled to right, Rutschman scored.11–1
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play11–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul10–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 110–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul10–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul10–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul10–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging10–1
- 8Rutschman singled to right, Mateo scored.10–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging9–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging9–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 29–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 19–1
- 7Rooker homered to left (391 feet).9–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 19–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–0
- 7Westburg singled to right, Urías scored, Mullins to third.9–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking8–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul8–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–0
- 7Henderson homered to right (392 feet).8–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–0
- 4Mountcastle homered to left center (439 feet), Westburg scored and Rutschman scored.7–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 3Hays singled to left, Mountcastle scored and Henderson scored, Hays out stretching at second.4–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 67%
- Fair odds
- BAL -133
- OAK +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.8 – 4.2 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1415 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −6 | BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.75 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +124 Elo | BAL 67.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 57.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 6.030th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −2.430th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3040–24 | Road vs home | 18–4330th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 5–1 OAK in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.