Baltimore Orioles at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- James McCannBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Cole IrvinPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Athletics- Aledmys DiazBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Ken WaldichukPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10McCann singled to left, Henderson scored and Hays scored.7–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 10Hays grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Mountcastle scored on error, Henderson to second, Henderson safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Allen.5–2
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 10Westburg hit sacrifice fly to center, Rutschman scored, Mountcastle to third.4–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 10Mountcastle singled to center, Frazier scored, Rutschman to second.3–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 6A. Díaz homered to left (360 feet).2–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4McCann homered to left center (403 feet).2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 4Hays homered to left (356 feet).1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2A. Díaz homered to center (400 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 66%
- Fair odds
- BAL -132
- OAK +132 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.8 – 4.2 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1417 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −7 | BAL: Cole Irvin: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · OAK: Ken Waldichuk: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +118 Elo | BAL 66.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 6.030th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −2.430th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3039–24 | Road vs home | 18–4230th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 4–1 OAK in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.