Baltimore Orioles at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Kyle MullerPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Brown singled to center, Rooker scored.9–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging9–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 29–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking9–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 19–4
- 5Rooker doubled to center, Gelof scored.9–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 29–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 19–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging9–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–3
- 5Westburg singled to center, Frazier scored.9–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play9–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 28–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 18–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking8–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–2
- 5Frazier doubled to right, O'Hearn scored.8–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 17–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging7–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 4Henderson singled to left, Frazier scored, Henderson to second, Rutschman to third.7–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 26–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking6–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 4Westburg hit sacrifice fly to right, Hays scored.6–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 35–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 62%
- Fair odds
- BAL -127
- OAK +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.5 – 4.0 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1419 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +4 | BAL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · OAK: Francisco Perez (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +83 Elo | BAL 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.930th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −2.330th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3038–24 | Road vs home | 18–4130th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
BAL 3–1 OAK in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.