Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Daulton VarshoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Orioles- Jordan WestburgBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Grayson RodriguezPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Guerrero Jr. scored on Baumann wild pitch.6–3
- 10Guerrero Jr. scored on Baumann wild pitch.6–3
- 10Belt homered to right center (417 feet), Bichette scored.5–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 5Westburg doubled to left, Rutschman scored, Hays to third.3–3
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 5Henderson struck out swinging, Mateo scored on throwing error by catcher Jansen, Rutschman stole second.3–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 3 Swinging3–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 4Kiermaier doubled to right, Chapman scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 12–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 2Varsho homered to right center (416 feet), Springer scored.2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Hays doubled to center, Henderson scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 51%
- Fair odds
- BAL -116
- TOR +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.4 – 4.8 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −8 | TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.84 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BAL: Grayson Rodriguez: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +5 Elo | BAL 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 1st of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 5th of 3037–29 | Road vs home | 36–235th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 2–8 BAL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 10.