Los Angeles Dodgers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Enrique HernandezBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan PepiotPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Guardians- Gabriel AriasBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter GaddisPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hernández homered to left center (401 feet).9–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–3
- 8Arias homered to center (425 feet).8–3
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play8–3
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball 18–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul8–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul8–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking8–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–2
- 7Hernández doubled to center, Outman scored.8–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 17–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul7–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–2
- 5Busch hit sacrifice fly to center, Heyward scored.7–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–2
- 5Outman singled to right, Muncy scored and Peralta scored, Heyward to second, Outman to second, Heyward safe at third on throwing error by right fielder Brennan.6–2
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 5Freeman scored on error, Heyward safe at first on fielding error by center fielder Laureano, Muncy safe at second on error, Peralta safe at third on error.4–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 4Busch homered to center (401 feet).3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Peralta grounded out to pitcher, Betts scored, Freeman to third.2–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Betts singled to right, Hernández scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 30–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 55%
- Fair odds
- LAD -107
- CLE +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.3 – 4.1 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +3 | LAD: Caleb Ferguson: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · CLE: Gavin Williams: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +37 Elo | LAD 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.027th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.04th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.1 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 7th of 3034–27 | Road vs home | 33–3219th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 1–1 CLE in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.