Los Angeles Dodgers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting5-5, 2 RBI
- Clayton KershawPitching2.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Xzavion CurryPitching2.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Betts doubled to left, Outman scored and Rosario scored, Rojas to third.6–1
- 8Pitch 9 : Ball In Play6–1
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball 34–1
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball 24–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 14–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 4Freeman singled to left, Rojas scored, Betts thrown out at second.4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 1Ramírez homered to left center (378 feet).3–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 23–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 13–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 1Hernández doubled to center, Freeman scored and Muncy scored.3–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Smith hit sacrifice fly to left, Betts scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Dodgers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 59%
- Fair odds
- LAD -108
- CLE +108 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.3 – 4.1 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +22 | −3 | LAD: Clayton Kershaw: team allows 1.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CLE: Xzavion Curry: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +63 Elo | LAD 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 4.027th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.03rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.1 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 7th of 3033–27 | Road vs home | 33–3118th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
LAD 0–1 CLE in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 0 of 1.