Cleveland Guardians at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Ramon LaureanoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Giménez homered to right (392 feet).5–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Guerrero Jr. homered to left center (422 feet).4–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 6Laureano doubled to left, Gonzalez scored.4–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 14–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 4Laureano homered to center (394 feet), Gonzalez scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 3Bo Naylor homered to right (359 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Springer homered to right center (360 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 30–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 55%
- Fair odds
- TOR -121
- CLE +121 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.6 – 4.1 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | +1 | CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.91 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +37 Elo | TOR 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.01st of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3027–35 | Road vs home | 32–2713th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 2–2 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.