Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Brandon BeltBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Orioles- Anthony SantanderBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching8.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 6Belt homered to right (385 feet).3–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 5Henderson singled to right, Frazier scored, Rutschman thrown out at third.2–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 5Mullins homered to right center (396 feet), Hays scored.2–4
- 5Pitch 10 : Ball In Play2–4
- 5Pitch 9 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 32–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 4Santander homered to right (417 feet), Rutschman scored.2–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 4Springer hit sacrifice fly to center, Bichette scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Guerrero Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Merrifield scored, Belt out at second, Bichette to third.1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 52%
- Fair odds
- BAL -117
- TOR +117 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.3 – 4.7 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −8 | TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BAL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +15 Elo | BAL 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 1st of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 7th of 3038–30 | Road vs home | 37–245th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TOR 3–9 BAL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 12.