Cleveland Guardians at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan AllenPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Blue Jays- Davis SchneiderBatting3-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Hyun Jin RyuPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Varsho singled to right, Schneider scored and Springer scored, Jansen to third.3–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 7Schneider singled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored, Springer to third.3–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 23–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 6Laureano hit by pitch, Calhoun scored, Gonzalez to second, Ramírez to third.3–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 5Freeman homered to left (364 feet).2–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–5
- 4Espinal hit sacrifice fly to center, Jansen scored.1–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 4Chapman singled to center, Schneider scored, Jansen to third.1–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 1Schneider homered to left center (384 feet), Springer scored.1–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Bichette singled to left, Merrifield scored.1–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Ramírez homered to left (391 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 54%
- Fair odds
- TOR -119
- CLE +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.7 – 4.1 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −12 | CLE: Logan Allen: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Hyun Jin Ryu: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +24 Elo | TOR 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CLE | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 5th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.01st of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 20th of 3028–35 | Road vs home | 32–2814th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
CLE 3–2 TOR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.