Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Joey MenesesBatting2-4
- Trevor WilliamsPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Jorge SolerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryan HoeingPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 3Soler homered to left center (418 feet), Arraez scored.1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Smith grounded out to first, Abrams scored, Thomas to third.1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Marlins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 52%
- Fair odds
- MIA -112
- WSH +112 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.7 – 4.9 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −5 | WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIA: JT Chargois (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +17 Elo | MIA 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.027th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 15th of 3032–33 | Road vs home | 37–2910th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 2–6 MIA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.