Washington Nationals at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Joey MenesesBatting2-4
- Patrick CorbinPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Blue Jays- Alejandro KirkBatting3-3, 3 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Kirk hit sacrifice fly to left, Schneider scored.0–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 6Espinal singled to center, Varsho scored, Clement to second.0–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–6
- 6Clement singled to center, Kirk scored, Varsho to third.0–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 4Biggio hit sacrifice fly to center, Clement scored, Espinal to third.0–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 30–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 4Espinal singled to right, Kirk scored, Espinal to second, Clement to third.0–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 1Kirk doubled to center, Guerrero Jr. scored and Schneider scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 60%
- Fair odds
- TOR -123
- WSH +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.3 – 4.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | 0 | WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.80 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +73 Elo | TOR 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 54.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.517th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.13rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 16th of 3033–35 | Road vs home | 34–3013th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 1–1 TOR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.