Washington Nationals at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Keibert RuizBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Blue Jays- Davis SchneiderBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Guerrero Jr. grounded out to third, Biggio scored, Springer to second, Kiermaier to third.5–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 8Merrifield scored on Harvey wild pitch, Kirk to third on wild pitch by Harvey.5–3
- 8Merrifield scored on Harvey wild pitch, Kirk to third on wild pitch by Harvey.5–3
- 7Schneider doubled to left, Biggio scored.5–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Ruiz homered to right (370 feet), Thomas scored and Meneses scored.5–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Schneider homered to left (394 feet).2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Kieboom homered to left center (410 feet), Smith scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Blue Jays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 60%
- Fair odds
- TOR -124
- WSH +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.4 – 4.9 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +5 | WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +68 Elo | TOR 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.03rd of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 16th of 3032–35 | Road vs home | 34–2912th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
WSH 0–1 TOR in their last 1 meeting; the forecast called 1 of 1.