Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Randy ArozarenaBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Luis ArraezBatting1-4
- Jesus LuzardoPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 10Arozarena singled to left, Aranda scored and J. Lowe scored.3–0
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 10J. Lowe singled to right, Siri scored, Aranda to third.1–0
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 57%
- Fair odds
- TB -105
- MIA +105 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.5 – 4.4 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1548 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −7 | TB: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIA: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +51 Elo | TB 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.027th of 30 |
| 1st of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 6th of 3036–29 | Road vs home | 38–3010th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
TB 2–1 MIA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.