New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Anthony VolpeBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8B. Lowe doubled to center, Arozarena scored.4–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–6
- 6B. Lowe singled to right, Arozarena scored and H. Ramírez scored.4–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 24–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 6H. Ramírez singled to right, Aranda scored and Bethancourt scored, Arozarena to third.4–4
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 24–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 14–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 4Volpe homered to right center (388 feet), Pereira scored.4–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 3LeMahieu homered to left center (392 feet).2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 3Higashioka homered to left (388 feet).1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1B. Lowe homered to right center (433 feet).0–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Arozarena scored on throwing error by center fielder Bader.0–1
- 1Arozarena scored on throwing error by center fielder Bader.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 60%
- Fair odds
- TB -129
- NYY +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.4 – 5.0 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −5 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +72 Elo | TB 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.34th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.01st of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +1.33rd of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3026–34 | Road vs home | 44–233rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 5–7 TB in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 12.