New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- DJ LeMahieuBatting3-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching7.2 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 8B. Lowe singled to left, Siri scored, Díaz to third.6–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 26–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–1
- 8LeMahieu homered to left center (405 feet).6–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 25–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 7Stanton doubled to left, Judge scored and Torres scored.5–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 13–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 7Torres hit a ground rule double, LeMahieu scored, Judge to third.3–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 6Díaz homered to center (414 feet).2–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 6Pereira singled to right, Torres scored, Stanton to second.2–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 5LeMahieu homered to left center (393 feet).1–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Rays 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 60%
- Fair odds
- TB -129
- NYY +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.5 – 5.0 TB
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −1 | NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TB: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +74 Elo | TB 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYY | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.44th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.03rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +1.33rd of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 24th of 3025–33 | Road vs home | 43–223rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Head to head
NYY 4–6 TB in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.